The integrated natural gas company is years away from shipping its first . Should You Buy TELL? Learn More. Therefore, perhaps we should expect to hear details of the banking group first. The companys revenue is forecast to drop by -31.40% over what it did in 2023. Tellurian Inc., whose market valuation is $894.89 million at the time of this writing. Drifting away. This leaves the U.S. at the mercy of China for our vital graphite supply. Many also are looking to an eventual end to the conflict in Europe which might drastically change the oil/ gas issue. But wasn't it obvious that Tellurian wasn't going to work out? Tellurian's LNG purchase deals with Shell, Vitol terminated - Houston TELL has enemies and their actions are the only reasonable explanation for any resistance to fully funding this plant. But, please, feel free to sell short. Why Tellurian Stock Cratered 40% in September | The Motley Fool When measured over the past 30 days, the indicator reaches 7.40%. A quick review shows that TELLs price is currently 8.94% off the SMA20 and 15.83% off the SMA50. The RSI metric on the 14-day chart is currently showing 57.42, and weekly volatility stands at 8.94%. Tellurian Inc. (TELL) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance Unfortunately, the historical financial performance of the company more broadly has not been that impressive. But even that is speculative. Information is provided 'as-is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice, and is delayed. Plus regular stock updates. For example, Join Over Half a Million Premium Members And Get More In-Depth Stock Guidance and Research, Motley Fool Issues Rare All In Buy Alert, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. contact@marketbeat.com Tellurian on Thursday asked its shareholders to vote on a proposal to double its share count as the liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer seeks to finance its multi-billion-dollar export terminal. However, that's nowhere near enough money to fund its ambitious plan to build an integrated. I'm Michael Wiggins De Oliveira and I have built a huge following by delivering high-quality investment insights over the years. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Sign up for MarketBeat All Access to gain access to MarketBeat's full suite of research tools: MarketRank is calculated as an average of available category scores, with extra weight given to analysis and valuation. The management team at Tellurian decided to withdraw a massive financing attempt that would have hit the company with incredibly onerous terms. Billy Duberstein has positions in Bank of America. Please log in to your account or sign up in order to add this asset to your watchlist. Bechtel is lined up with a turnkey construction contract signed, a fixed cost contract with a +/- 5% on costs. And yet, today, I'm downward revising Tellurian stock from a buy to a hold. But of course, this assumes that there is nothing in any of its other projects, such as the $240 million pipeline investment it committed to in June of this year, that would prohibit this or that would stop the company from pivoting. Although this is a positive financially, TELL shares plummeted because the move throws into doubt the firm's ability to fund its $12.8 billion Driftwood LNG export terminal project. In December of last year, for instance, management donated $25 million of the company's money to the National Forest Foundation for Nationwide Reforestation. Futures markets now have natural gas prices averaging around $3 for 2023. That had the potential to delay Driftwood's 2026 operational start date, and Tellurian saw two large contracts canceled as a result. Instead, it raised cash to potentially buy more natural gas production assets. Asian spot prices (JKM) are currently over $30 /MMBtu compared to US gas prices (Henry Hub) of around $5.50, creating a massive margin. Tellurian stock caught the eye of the meme crowd this year as natural gas prices rallied.The stock has jumped by nearly 190 percent YTD but is off 30 percent from the highs it reached in June. Only 37.72% of the stock of Tellurian is held by institutions. After news broke that a critical financing round for the company was shut down by management because of what management referred to as uncertainty in the junk bond market, the company was left with a lack of capital needed to fund its $12.8 billion Driftwood LNG project. Later phases are to be funded by retained cash flows of the earlier phases. Its not worth anything over 0.75 cents, what i perceive value in a Chap. Why Is Tellurian (TELL) Stock Trending Today? | InvestorPlace In fact, I declare that natural gas will rival oil as the primary energy source in the world. The oil and gas producer can be reached via phone at (832) 962-4000 or via email at ir@tellurianinc.com. As part of that strategy, the company introduced flexibility into its LNG portfolio by terminating two current sales and purchase agreements. Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team. Tellurian has received no research coverage in the past 90 days. The company also has cash in excess of debt of $229.6 million. However, this figure has increased over the past 10 days to an average of 10.21 million. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks. The P/E ratio of Tellurian is -80.71, which means that its earnings are negative and its P/E ratio cannot be compared to companies with positive earnings. Compare your portfolio performance to leading indices and get personalized stock ideas based on your portfolio. Tellurian Stock Surges: What's Going On? - Benzinga (Even at 50%, it cut the mustard!). I do much more than just articles at Deep Value Returns: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Nasdaq Futures 15555.00 -37.25 (-0.24%) Dow Jones Futures 35385.00 -16.00 (-0.05%) S&P 500 Futures 4564.00 -1.50 (-0.03%) EUR/USD 1.11 -0.00 (-0.07%) GBP/USD 1.29 -0.00 (-0.06%) USD/JPY 141.61 1.55 (1.11%) Bitcoin USD 30025.45 185.11 (0.62%) Crude Oil 76.83 1.18 (1.56%) Gold And assuming that investors accepted the projections that management laid out, the end result for all parties involved should have been fantastic. The stats also highlight that short interest as of Jun 29, 2023, stood at 71.19 million shares, resulting in a short ratio of 6.95 at that time. While its true that these margins (described as obscene by Charif Souki) are unlikely to continue, Im convinced the energy crunches we are seeing now are not just transitory growth pains in the recovery from locked-down economies. This project is slated to cost the company $12.8 billion to build for the first two plants of the five, with said project capable of 11 million tons of capacity per year. 0 analyst(s) have tagged Tellurian Inc. (TELL) as Underweight, while 1 advise Sell. The company is fundamentally in an interesting spot and it's possible that its Driftwood LNG project may never get built. Nevertheless, I continue to hold out a small sliver of hope that it may work out, somehow, for investors. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Shares of Tellurian (TELL 0.31%) were tumbling on Tuesday, falling 11.5% as of 2:57 p.m. I am now 90% sure that Tellurian is going to be successful. Tellurian had a negative trailing twelve-month return on equity of 1.30% and a negative net margin of 3.61%. When Souki recorded his youtube video explaining the decision to pull the $1bn offering he explained that they would most likely miss the first half 2026 LNG deliver schedule. Entering text into the input field will update the search result below, company was left with a lack of capital needed to fund its $12.8 billion Driftwood LNG project. The analyst noted the company's inability to raise capital even at a high cost "simply reinforces the challenge of capital raising and challenging prospects of the project attracting a strategic investor.". Tellurian Inc ( TELL) is up 1.21% today. Now he knows. See Full TELL Report TELL stock closed at $1.65 and is up $0.02 during pre-market trading. Lets call it $3.5bn FCF ($5.4bn - $1bn - tax). The stock was sold at an average price of $1.40, for a total transaction of $434,533.40. The stock is continuing to fall after hours on financing concerns. Investors will be thrilled if TELLs share price rises to $2.50, which is the median consensus price. All of this leads me to take a rather neutral stance on the company, recognizing that there could be some upside if things go well but also acknowledging that the risk associated with that upside is certainly elevated. Phase 1 consists of two plants and capacity of 11 mtpa. Get short term trading ideas from the MarketBeat Idea Engine. It is set back 6 months now because he dragged his feet and went for the hail mary when he needed to follow the game plan that others have used. Tellurian can produce LNG for $3 /MMBtu and transportation costs are $2 /MMBtu. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. That would still leave around $145 million in extra cash flow to handle interest expense and other costs. Why Tellurian Sank Today | The Motley Fool Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. Things have really gone against Tellurian over the past six months, but it's a good lesson for investors on the risks of investing in what is basically a pre-revenue company. This is at $14 JKM price. Tellurian Stock: Drifting Away, Downwards Revised (NYSE:TELL) But this was before the company acquired the Haynesville assets. TELL lost -$0.25 per share the over the last 12 months. What happened. These revelations led analysts to downgrade their view. Do Options Traders Know Something About Tellurian (TELL) Stock We Don't? Those selling will regret it because the day will come when he gets FID and construction has already started. To see how Tellurian Inc. stock has been performing in comparison to its peers in the industry, here are the numbers: TELL stock's performance was -1.89% in the latest trading, and -58.73% in the past year, while Civitas Resources Inc. (CIVI) has traded -1.46% on the day and positioned 41.54% higher than it was a year ago. More perks. In August, the company completed the acquisition of some natural gas assets in the Haynesville Shale in exchange for what ultimately ended up being $125.5 million, plus $7.5 million in contingent consideration should certain events transpire. But because there does exist a lot of uncertainty regarding these and managements path forward, I do think a more appropriate rating for the company is a hold, to reflect a more neutral stance on the enterprise until the dust settles. Looking back it was crystal clear Tellurian had massive problems. Source: Shutterstock Let's take a look at everything potential investors in TELL stock. TELL will ultimately prevail. I see what you did there. For example, Stifel analyst Benjamin Nolan lowered that firm's price target from $3 per share to $2 while keeping a sell rating. The official website for the company is www.tellurianinc.com. How were Tellurian's earnings last quarter? Why Tellurian Stock Rocketed 22% Higher at the Open Today What happened Shares of Tellurian ( TELL 8.63%) were tumbling on Tuesday, falling 11.5% as of 2:57 p.m. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Compare Top Brokerages Here. With debt financing now even more expensive, management has shifted from targeting the debt markets to trying to find a strategic equity partner to finance Driftwood. So the value they have to sell and export is enormous at these prices. Dumoulin-Smith notes that at expected natural gas prices, Tellurian would burn through about $265 million this year, or 40% of its balance sheet cash. Unfortunately, there are no graphite-producing mines in North America today. 2 No-Brainer Reasons to Claim Social Security Benefits at Age 62, 1 Unstoppable Stock Down 85% You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip, 3 Magnificent Stocks Being Added Hand Over Fist to Warren Buffett's Secret Portfolio. In June of this year, the company announced definitive agreements covering $500 million of senior secured convertible notes. Either the market was not confident about the projections, investors were not confident about management, or some combination of the two. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Investment Groupwith real performance. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. That's creating some uncertainty about how it might fund Driftwood, which could continue weighing on the stock until there's more clarity on financing that needle-moving project. Where I disagree is that Tellurian is the best vehicle to participate in the expression of this insight. This has investors concerned it might not get the financing needed to build its Driftwood project. The initial phase will likely include 3 plants (16.6 mtpa capacity). Is RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) Doomed To Fail? With financing costs skyrocketing with rising interest rates, Driftwood may have to delay or push back its 2026 operational start date. Unfortunately, in an effort to boost its internal cash flow, Tellurian purchased natural gas-producing assets in the Haynesville shale from EnSight Energy Partners last July, when natural gas prices were more than double what they are now. (844) 978-6257. Lower cost. was news that it pulled a bond offering and terminated two sales contracts as it shifted the financing strategy for its proposed Driftwood LNG project. Identify stocks that meet your criteria using seven unique stock screeners. Based on the $1 billion in financing the company wanted to raise, this would ultimately dilute investors in the company by 11.7% and at a price that would represent only a 20% premium over the 30-day volume weighted average price of the firm's stock at the time the deal closed. It priced the $50 million debt sale two days later. And even with that background hum, Tellurian still failed to complete its final investment decision (''FID''). The company employs 171 workers across the globe. I waited 9 years for LNG and they finally surfaced (financially) last year. 3 Stocks on the Move in July: Adobe, Salesforce, Enovix, Exec. With analysts defining $1.00-$5.00 as the low and high price targets, we arrive at a consensus price target of $2.66 for the trailing 12-month period. The trading price of Tellurian Inc. (AMEX:TELL) closed lower on Friday, July 21, closing at $1.56, -1.89% lower than its previous close. Sign up today for your two-week free trial and get a new lease on oil & gas! Latest News for Tellurian Stock (AMEX:TELL) - Benzinga Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Together, the team has originated and executed ~75% of U.S. LNG capacity development and ~18% of global LNG capacity development. There is a chance for a pivot that may make sense, but beyond that the picture doesn't look great. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. To make the world smarter, happier, and richer. Why Tellurian (TELL) Stock Is Tumbling Afterhours - Benzinga The numbers. While natural gas holds promise as a future energy source, doubts persist about Tellurian's ability to capitalize on it effectively. Rapid Recap In my previous analysis, I wrote: I estimate that Tellurian Inc. ( NYSE: TELL) is likely to run out of capital for its ongoing operations within 12 months. The complete Driftwood project consists of four stages and building five liquefaction plants. According to analysts' consensus price target of $2.50, Tellurian has a forecasted upside of 54.8% from its current price of $1.62. Tellurian Market Cap $884M Today's Change (6.80%) $0.10 Current Price $1.57 Tuesday's positive news was tempered by a dilutive stock offering at a low price. I also believe that Tellurian will be diluting shareholders as convertible note holders are able to cash in $165 million worth of convertibles within 12 months. In fact, from 2021 through 2030, the company. The company noted that it intends to use the funds for general corporate purposes, including the potential acquisition of upstream assets. At a $14 JKM price, this means a $9 margin per MMBtu for Tellurian. The gravy comes in later stages. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. The Driftwood project will be financed by equity customer/partners as well as project debt financing. Why I doubled down on Tellurian : r/TellurianLNG - Reddit If we are to reduce coal burning globally and meet rising energy demand at the same time, there is no alternative for the foreseeable future but to massively raise the production of a mix of other energy sources: including renewables, nuclear and gas. Canceled deals raise questions for TELL stock By Josh Enomoto, InvestorPlace Contributor Sep 26, 2022, 1:48 pm EDT Tellurian ( TELL) stock. Tellurian Stock Forecast 2025Concerns Outweigh Potential Returns Find out what this means to you and get the rest of the rankings on TELL! While management is trying to work ways around this problem, there is no guarantee that there will be a favorable outcome for shareholders. While management is trying to work ways around this problem, there is no guarantee that there will be a favorable outcome for shareholders. Just curious.you seem to poo poo the sale and leaseback activities as a sign of a failing company when such financial moves are commonplace in the hydrocarbon processing sector. Discounted offers are only available to new members. Tellurian's stock is owned by many different institutional and retail investors. Tellurian The end result, management said, would be a facility that helps meet growing demand for LNG that is certain to outpace the growth in supply. Weighing on the liquified natural gas (LNG) stock was news that it closed a debt offering. Ive also lost patience with this and share the same concerns regarding runway running out for Driftwood. up my previous analysis. But for many of the other energy sources, I believe that natural gas will displace oil. This is especially true when you consider that all of the capacity for the Phase 1 of Driftwood LNG was already committed to prior to the terminal ever breaking ground. Get 30 Days of MarketBeat All Access Free, By creating a free account, you agree to our. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. The company even added to those assets with an acquisition last summer. Although, keep in mind, that at the time of the 8-K, Tellurian knew that it was only a few days from selling off 800 acres of land for $1 billion that would bring onto its balance sheet desperately needed capital. While U.S. natural gas prices rose as high as $9.33 last August, prices have plummeted since then to $2.57 per MMBtu as of this writing. Using the cash flow from Phase 1, management hopes to build out three additional plans that will help get annual operating cash flow up to $11 billion. Why Tellurian Stock Is Plunging Today By Matthew DiLallo - Nov 10, 2021 at 4:27PM Key Points The LNG project developer closed a debt offering to buy more natural gas assets. Uncertainty in the junk bond market. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. The main catalyst remains Driftwood, which it still must figure out how to finance. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. To see how Tellurian Inc. stock has been performing in comparison to its peers in the industry, here are the numbers: TELL stocks performance was -1.89% in the latest trading, and -58.73% in the past year, while Civitas Resources Inc. (CIVI) has traded -1.46% on the day and positioned 41.54% higher than it was a year ago. Energy Penny Stocks: 9 Things to Know About Natural Gas Play Tellurian The lack of transparency and constant setbacks made me very skeptical of holding this for the long term. Tellurian Inc. (TELL) Latest Stock News & Headlines - Yahoo Finance However, at that time, the board of directors had not yet approved such a budget. Tellurian provided a subsequent update to its financing strategy in late September, shifting its priority to securing equity partners. Although about 8% of shorted shares have been bought back, bringing the current short interest down to about 71.2 million, I'd like to see over 90 million shares short. Your email address will not be published. to purchase shares in the company. His ridiculous YT videos are sucking the cash out of the pockets of the cultists and gullible dreamers. Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): Finding Hidden Gems Among Volatility. In late August, Tellurian announced its intentions to offer and sell units consisting of 11.25% senior secured notes due in 2027 andwarrantsto purchase shares in the company. All rights reserved. I dont know the numbers for interest expense and operating expenses at the Tellurian level, but I would expect them to be less than $1bn. It could pay off spectacularly if the company secures funding and builds Driftwood. With all the esg sentiment that is reaching into every board room it comes as no surprise at all at the unwillingness to jump on this project. Things are not going particularly well for energy company Tellurian (NYSE:TELL). View our TELL earnings forecast. Kimberly-Clark Raises Sales and Profit Guidance, Can it Breakout? The spread between domestic U.S. natural gas prices and prices for the Asian and European markets is still significant, with both the North West Europe and Japan/Korea LNG marker futures in the mid to high teens per MMBtu. Your password must be at least 8 characters long and contain at least 1 number, 1 letter, and 1 special character. Invest better with The Motley Fool. They are symptomatic of a structural energy shortage. Learn More. These are experienced people who know the playbook theyve already done it once creating a major LNG business from scratch. Join Over Half a Million Premium Members And Get More In-Depth Stock Guidance and Research, Motley Fool Issues Rare All In Buy Alert, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. Tellurian announced, on 3 November, after moving the stock to the New York Stock Exchange, the intention to issue a senior note at 8.25% yield, due in 2028. Souki shouldn't have waited on financing because he thought he could nickel and dime this together over a couple years but the market is full of sharks that bit his butt off. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Outside of the major gas exporters, there is a gap in supply for at least the next five years (the time it takes to build new projects) and so global prices are likely to stay elevated far above US prices for the foreseeable future. Export data to Excel for your own analysis. Martin Houston, Co-founder and Vice Chairman, was COO at BG Group, where he is credited with being the key architect of the companys leading LNG business (acquired by Royal Dutch Shell in 2015). Shares ofTellurian(TELL) plummeted 40.3% in September, according to data provided byS&P Global Market Intelligence. He should have done a full FID financing when the Europeans were desperate (and still are). Earnings for Tellurian are expected to grow in the coming year, from ($0.29) to ($0.22) per share. Down Around 40% From Its High, Could Tellurian Stock Still Be - Nasdaq What about Tellurian? Unfortunately, the project is only in its preliminary stages of construction and isn't fully funded. Over the past year the S&P 500 is lower by -6.27% while TELL is down -29.60%. And yet, today, I'm downward revising Tellurian stock from a buy to a hold. Furthermore, Plains All American Pipeline L.P. (PAA) showed an increase of 0.34% on the day while its price kept inclining at 35.75% over the past year. Matthew DiLallo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. For a couple of years now, the management team at Tellurian has been focused on building one of the largest LNG export terminals in the world, with the end goal being a facility with annual capacity of up to 27.6 million tons per annum. Indeed, the graphic above is a painful reminder that in the long run, the market is a weighing machine. Over the past month, the stock has gained 17.29% in value. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bank of America. A bet on Tellurian is still essentially a levered bet on natural gas, and with the price of the commodity falling, it's no wonder the stock has plummeted as a result. It also has granted underwriters the ability to purchase another $7.5 million of notes over the next 30 days. Having. Members of Crude Value Insights get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. American Consumer News, LLC dba MarketBeat 2010-2023. But then again, this is not the first time that the company has made a peculiar move. However, there has been no news on that front since the debt financing cancellation. The company's track record raises questions about its long-term viability as an investment. Tellurian (TELL) Stock Forecast, Price & News - MarketBeat What we have here is likely to be a rocket ship. Also on the cards is an acquisition of upstream assets.
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